'The old rules no longer apply': Climate scientists envision mild winters all over Canada by 2080
New research predicts sweeping changes to temperature and precipitation rates all over urban North America in the next six decades
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Climate scientists are envisioning a future in which the typical Montreal winter warms by nearly 10 degrees Celsius, frosty Quebec City starts feeling like comparatively balmy southern Ontario and snowbound cities across the Prairies get a whole lot wetter throughout the coldest months of the year.
Come 2080, the weather in scores of North American cities could bear closer resemblance to the present-day versions of places that are hundreds of kilometres to the south, including several Canadian centres whose winters are expected to become much milder if emissions keep rising over time.
These projections are among the major takeaways of new environmental research that predicts sweeping changes to temperature and precipitation rates all over urban North America in the next six decades.
Where the study, published in Nature Communications this week, diverges from the wealth of existing scientific literature on climate change is the decision of its authors, Maryland-based ecologist Matt Fitzpatrick and biologist Rob Dunn of North Carolina, to create an interactive map that displays the future forecast for every city they studied, supplementing a dense account of their conclusions with digestible findings that any layman with internet access can understand.
The goal of the study was then to convert these abstract, descriptive, often distant in space and time projections into something that people could relate to a lot better
Fitzpatrick says he was motivated to undertake this research and to present it to the public in this form when, some years ago, he was browsing a relative’s bookshelf and came across an Ann Coulter title. Inside, the American conservative commentator scoffed at the looming dire consequences of climate change by questioning why people who attend a cookout should care if the temperature rises by two degrees that day.
“I was like, ‘Well, that’s ridiculous,’” Fitzpatrick said. “But then I thought, well, yeah, we hear all the time about these global climate projections and things like the Paris climate accord, trying to hold global temperature change to 1.5 C. But what does that actually mean for me where I live? What does that mean for my climate?
“The goal of the study was then to convert these abstract, descriptive, often distant in space and time projections into something that people could relate to a lot better.”
Fitzpatrick’s study comprises 540 urban areas in North America, including 10 in Canada, and his map lists an analog city — the place elsewhere on the continent whose present-day weather most closely matches the researchers’ 2080 estimates — for each one.
If people keep pumping emissions into the atmosphere to the same degree as now, the researchers predict that 2080 Montreal, for example, will resemble Chester, Penn., where an average winter is currently 9.5 C warmer and 10.7 per cent wetter than in Quebec’s largest city.
A second model the researchers designed, one that assumes emission output will peak around 2040 and then begin to decline in line with policy shifts and human behavioural changes, pegs Niles, Mich., as Montreal’s analog, with winters that are 5.4 C warmer and 17 per cent drier.
Numerous Canadian cities are expected to heat up considerably under the high-emissions scenario.
The researchers’ findings suggest that Toronto could morph into Secaucus, N.J., 800 km to the southeast, with winters that are 5 C warmer and 45.4 per cent wetter. Calgary’s analog is 1,300 km in the same direction: Spearfish, S.D., whose winters are 4.6 C warmer and 19 per cent wetter. Winnipeg’s parallel is Maplewood, Minn., 750 km away, where winter is 7.7 C warmer and 17.7 per cent wetter.
No analog is an identical match, Fitzpatrick said, but the exercise helped the researchers gather ample evidence of the changes residents of northerly cities can generally anticipate, especially if emissions remain constant or increase in the furture. (Although the map indicates that reducing emissions won’t totally forestall climate change, it could curtail its consequences.)
“We’re talking about cities in the northeast becoming like places in the south and southeast. Those are really big changes,” Fitzpatrick said. “Children alive today, they’re going to witness this dramatic transformation of climate. If you’ve been alive long enough, you’ve already witnessed a lot of it yourself. That’s only going to continue.”
The 540 cities Fitzpatrick and Dunn analyzed amount to an approximate population of 250 million people, including almost half of Canadians, the researchers note in the study. In addition to those already mentioned, the Canadian cities they examined are Vancouver, Victoria, Edmonton, Ottawa and Saint John, N.B.
Fitzpatrick and Dunn made their forecasts for 2080 by synchronizing each city’s mean weather conditions between 1960-1990 with future projections from established global climate models.
Though their work began in part as a counter to the Ann Coulters of the world, Fitzpatrick said he hopes it also exemplifies how scientists can communicate more effectively with policymakers and the public — people who may still be persuaded to take action to address climate change before it’s too late.
As it stands, he said, “These rapid changes are going to shift places to the point where the old rules no longer apply in a lot of cases.”
• Email: nfaris@postmedia.com | Twitter: @nickmfaris
The analogs for each Canadian city
Here are Fitzgerald and Dunn’s analogs for the 10 Canadian cities they studied under their high-emissions model. The statistics reflect the analog city’s temperature and precipitation in a typical winter.
2080 Vancouver = 2019 Seattle, Wash.: 2.4 C warmer, 24.4% drier
2080 Victoria = 2019 Seattle, Wash.: 1.2 C warmer, 11.1% drier
2080 Calgary = 2019 Spearfish, S.D.: 4.6 C warmer, 19% wetter
2080 Edmonton = 2019 Mendota Heights, Minn.: 3.4 C warmer, 15.8% wetter
2080 Winnipeg = 2019 Maplewood, Minn.: 7.7 C warmer, 17.7% wetter
2080 Toronto = 2019 Secaucus, N.J.: 5 C warmer, 45.4% wetter
2080 Ottawa = 2019 South Shore, Ill.: 6.1 C warmer, 23.3% drier
2080 Montreal = 2019 Chester, Penn.: 9.5 C warmer, 10.7% wetter
2080 Quebec City = 2019 Chatham, Ont.: 7.3 C warmer, 29.7% drier
2080 Saint John = 2019 Riverhead, N.Y.: 5.6 C warmer, 19.2% drier
Here are the researchers’ analogs for each Canadian city under their reduced-emissions model. Again, the numbers reflect the analog city’s average weather in winter.
2080 Vancouver = 2019 Seattle, Wash.: 2.4 C warmer, 24.4% drier
2080 Victoria = 2019 Seattle, Wash.: 1.2 C warmer, 11.1% drier
2080 Calgary = 2019 Great Falls, Mont.: 4.7 C warmer, 2% drier
2080 Edmonton = 2019 Alexandria, Minn.: 0.2 C cooler, 5.1% drier
2080 Winnipeg = 2019 Saint Paul, Minn.: 7.2 C warmer, 19.4% wetter
2080 Toronto = 2019 Lorain, Ohio: 2 C warmer, 3.2% wetter
2080 Ottawa = 2019 Chatham, Ont.: 6.2 C warmer, 6.3% drier
2080 Montreal = Niles, Mich.: 5.4 C warmer, 17% drier
2080 Quebec City = Woodstock, Ont.: 5.6 C warmer, 20.6% drier
2080 Saint John = Mashpee, Mass.: 4.8 C warmer, 15.7% drier
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